As of April 2026, a surge of over 45 incidents—including fires, explosions, and drone attacks—has hit global oil refineries and energy infrastructure within 45 days, marking an ~1800% increase in disruptions compared to typical annual averages. These incidents, impacting nations like the US, Russia, India, and Mexico, have created significant supply pressures.
Key Regional Incidents & Findings:
- Russia: Drone attacks by Ukraine have hit at least 17, or even up to 21 of Russia’s large refineries, causing major operational halts in a campaign to target roughly 40-42% of Russian oil refining capacity.
- United States: Several incidents, including a massive explosion and fire at the Valero Port Arthur refinery in Texas, have hit major facilities.
- Global Impacts: Significant incidents were reported in Mexico (Olmeca/Dos Bocas), India (HPCL Rajasthan), Australia (Viva Energy Geelong), and the Middle East, with fire incidents in Ecuador, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, suggesting potential coordination.
- Context: These events are occurring amid global instability, including the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Findings on the Surge:
- Rise in Incidents: The surge includes over 45 incidents in 45 days, compared to the normal average of fewer than 10 per year.
- Uncertainty: While some are confirmed sabotage or drone attacks, others are officially attributed to technical issues, valve failures, or fire accidents, leading to debates over whether these are coordinated actions or a “chaotic” coincidence