Ukraine War Struggles to Adopt a Ceasefire
Renee Parsons
In February, 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was initiating a Special Military Operation against neighboring Ukraine. With less than a full military commitment, the intent of the SMO was to restrain NATO from its planned “advancement of alliance infrastructure to the borders of Russia” in addition to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine.
Putin’s message explained that “military development in Ukraine’s territories are unacceptable. The problem is not NATO itself – it is only an instrument of US foreign policy.”
Putin continued “The problem is that territories adjacent historically ours were being created, placed under full external control; intensively settled by the armed forces of NATO with the most modern weapons.”[4]
Those eastern Ukraine regions that Putin identified as separatist-controlled, yet ethnically and culturally Russian with 15% of Ukraine population, have a long, historic presence in Russian recognition. They are Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
After a predictable affirmative public vote, all four regions maintained their ethnic heritage in approving an annexation to Mother Russia. It has been formal Russian recognition of their sovereignty which encouraged the SMO to protect those Russian speaking oblasts.
Today, as a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine continues to stall, determination of sovereignty remains one final essential element to any peace agreement. The indispensable nature of these regions has been conveyed to Trump with the message that no Russian agreement can be made without their inclusion.
All four of those regions held citizen votes in 2014 which provided overwhelming support for a return to their Russian heritage and citizenship. By 2014, the Kiev government banned the Russian language and began a violent eight year war with terrorist attacks on civilians including widespread human rights violations with almost 20,000 fatalities.
At that time, Putin officially recognised the DPR and the LPR as independent states, per the UN Charter’s Article 51 on self defense explaining that “for eight years now, those regions have been facing humiliation and a genocide battlefield perpetrated by the Kyiv regime.“
It is ironic that after years of bloody conflict between eastern Ukraine and Kiev, the Zelensky government is now insistent that those independent regions remain in and belong to Ukraine.
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Almost immediately after the SMO announcement, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived with a message for President Zelensky that if a peace agreement was signed in Istanbul on March 29th, the ‘collective’ west would not make any financial commitment to his country’s success.
On March 29th, delegations from Ukraine and Russia met in Turkey to deliberate on a draft peace agreement considered by the US as foundational to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Later, however, Ukraine withdrew from the agreement citing the influence of Boris Johnson.
Of special concern, EU leaders then agreed to boost defense spending with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposing an €800 billion ($870 billion) rearmament plan with each EU nation to increase military spending by 1.5%.
“The confrontational rhetoric and developments we are currently witnessing in Brussels and other European capitals are, of course, fundamentally at odds with any intention to pursue a peaceful settlement around Ukraine,” said Dmjitry Peskov, Putin’s press representative.
With 45% of the world’s natural resources, Russia remains the richest country in the world, a highly desired goal for asset starved Europeans.
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Three years into the Ukraine war, with an estimated 1.2 million Ukraine fatalities, it is inconceivable that after their Oval Office confrontation that Zelensky has been allowed to continue a hopelessly bloody conflict that persists in destroying Ukrainians while maintaining the pretense there is a level playing field.
Upon inauguration as the self-proclaimed peace President, Trump could have issued an Executive Order to stop the war or to halt US funding or military supply deliveries to Ukraine. He did not as he recently sent $1 Billion worth of military supplies to Ukraine “at the president’s discretion” and continues the inexplicable bombing of Yemen in retaliation for their support of Gaza and opposition to Isreal shipping through the Red Sea.
Current negotiations on a ‘ceasefire’ have stalled with Russia reluctant to limit their negotiating ability and to raise other substantive issues as, for instance, Russia cannot allow Zelenskyy to rearm during a ceasefire as the EU escalates its fund raising efforts.
In a recent Oval Office conversation with Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, Trump was quoted as saying they talked about ‘concepts of land…that would be kept and lost and other elements of a final agreement” as well as Ukraine’s entry into NATO – topics that might have put Putin’s teeth on edge.
It might have seemed that Ukraine’s lack of entry into NATO was a foregone conclusion – that it was not going to happen. How appropriate was it for Trump to openly discuss details of the ceasefire draft with a representative of NATO already known for wanting to sabotage any ceasefire/peace agreement.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio in commenting on the continuing failure of a peace agreement offered the troubling perspective that “I think we need to remind every body that this is not our War. We didn’t start it. The United States has been helping Ukraine because over the last three years and we want it to end. So if they are serious about peace, either side or both, we want to help. If it’s not going to happen then we’re just doing to move on.”
In a recent news clip, Trump iterated that “the war between Russia and Ukraine is Biden’s war; not mine. I’m just trying to get it stopped. This is not my war; this is Biden’s war.”
Both may have forgotten that the US, through NATO, has been threatening to move eastward right up to the Russian border for the last thirty years; despite an acknowledged promise to Gorbachev in 1990’s that such a move would never happen.
Mr. Rubio may need to be reminded that the US provided just under $200 billion to continue the Ukraine war as well as an unknown quantity of weapons delivered to the Ukrainians over a three year period. That level of funding suggests that Ukraine was accepted as an American-embraced war with multiple Congressional votes in support.
Rubio’s further comments came after a Paris luncheon with European leaders who were also meeting with representatives of Ukraine. “We are not going to continue this endeavor for weeks and months on end, so we need to determine very quickly now, I’m talking a matter of days whether or not this is doable over the next few weeks. If it is, we’re in; if it’s not; we have other priorities to focus on as well.”
One might wonder what other more vital priority do the top two US officials have but stopping WW III.
In referring to the draft ceasefire, Rubio commented that the “blueprint the U.S. presented was broad and did not get into the specifics of potential security guarantees for Ukraine.” In other words, the Russians have not rushed to sign a complicated document which may contain terms they may not be comfortable with or set a dangerous precedent.
The President confirmed that “if, for some reason, one country makes it very difficult; we’re going to just take a pass.” Trump went on to confess to NBC that he was “pissed off’ at Putin for failure to secure a ceasefire.
Today, he is running out of patience.
Rubio and Trump cannot be seriously thinking about ‘walking away’ but words have power. Five thousand miles from Washington, DC, Putin may hear what sounds like a softening of Trump’s resolve to end the war in a favorable way.
Both sound as casual as if they are talking about a more mundane matter of little consequence with the war in Ukraine still a potential to turn into WW III. Trump’s ego may be on the line since he promised to end the war twenty four hours after inauguration and that has not happened.
Despite Trump’s bluster, the pre-election bombast failed to materialize as President Trump has surrounded himself with a neo con foreign policy bureaucracy that continues to lob 500 bombing sorties on Yemen at an estimated cost of $1 billion.
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Trump’s envoy to Russia and long time business friend with no diplomatic experience is Steve Witkoff who met with Putin as Trump urged that Russia ‘get moving’ on a peace deal. After the Putin-Witkoff meeting, Witkoff, who has the temperament of a professional diplomat, has suggested that the fastest way for peace is for the US to support Russian ownership of the four regions.
It remains paradoxical that after years of bloody conflict as Kiev bitterly attacked those historic Russian-speaking regions for eight years, the Zelensky government remains insistent that those regions remain and belong only to Ukraine as it refuses to recognize the rights of those four regions to Russian citizenship.
Reference: Rubio: US May Abandon Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Without Progress
Renee Parsons has been an elected public official in Colorado, served as staff in the Colorado State Public Defenders Office, been an environmental lobbyist for Friends of the Earth and a staff member in the US House of Representatives in Washington, DC. Before its demise, she served on the ACLU’s Florida State Board of Directors and as president of the ACLU’s Treasure Coast Chapter.