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Summary
- Trump escalates warnings of “massive attack”: Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks and said he is “close” to ordering a massive new strike (Axios interview).
- Houthis escalate: The Houthis threatened Saudi Aramco after attacking two Saudi oil tankers and expanding their blockade of Saudi shipping.
- Oil jumps: Brent crude climbed back above $100 as Red Sea and Hormuz shipping disruptions intensified.
- Rubio says no talks are happening: Rubio said Iran is “begging for a deal” while warning Tehran will continue to “pay a very heavy price.”
- Overnight tit-for-tat persists: The US carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran as Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait reported fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks.
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Trump “Close” To Bigger Strikes Than Ever Before: Interview
President Trump has newly been cited in Axios as saying he’s seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran. He’s previewing strikes that would be bigger than anything before, including in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury, when dozens of Iranian government and military leaders were killed, including the Ayatollah. There’s also chatter that Israel could rejoin the attacks this time, after Israeli jets have been absent in the past twelve days of renewed bombing raids.
However, Axios stipulated that Trump has yet to make a final decision. Mideast regional Al Hadath and Israel’s Channel 12 are separately reporting that US officials have told regional allies to “be prepared” for such a new major assault on Iran.
Axios writes, “In a brief interview, Trump acknowledged that such a decision would have consequences and stressed he hasn’t made a determination yet.” This as Brent Crude has climbed past $100 per barrel on Thursday, and as the prospect of all-out war remains unpopular among American voters, especially with months to go ahead of the midterms.
“I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” the president said. And more via the Axios interview:
- Trump said Israel “would join in two minutes if I ask them to,” but added that “we don’t need anybody” to launch a new operation against Iran.
- He also said there would be “consequences” for Israel joining the strikes, hinting at Iranian retaliation against Israel.
- Trump said the Iranians “want to negotiate” but are not ready to make a deal at the moment.
- “They haven’t received enough pain yet,” he said.
- Two regional sources with knowledge of mediation efforts said Iranian leadership hasn’t accepted the latest proposal put forward.
- “We are trying, but the Iranians are not being helpful,” one of them said.
The Houthis have meanwhile been ratcheting their involvement, apparently having been called upon by Tehran to help it keep leverage over key oil transit chokepoints. All the while, there have been widespread reports of the Pentagon surging large aircraft, especially refueling tankers, from Europe to the CENTCOM area.
Houthis Threaten Saudi Aramco
After the Iranian-aligned Houthis confirmed they struck two Saudi oil tankers as part of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, as a second chokepoint on global oil supplies opens alongside the Strait of Hormuz, on Thursday the Shia militant group is now openly threatening Aramco facilities inside the kingdom… or at least some unnamed officials are telling regional media.
The Houthis have characterized their campaign as “a blockade for a blockade,” saying it is intended to pressure Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have already been blockading Houthis controlled-ports in Yemen for years, which hearkens back to a Gulf vs. Houthi chiefly aerial war that opened in 2015.
The group is threatening to carry on with attacks even if Saudi vessels seek to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. US regional allies are currently scrambling to establish alternative energy shipping routes that avoids the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
Al Jazeera has cited unnamed Houthis sources who say that Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities could be next:
The ship, confirmed by both the Houthis and British maritime organisations, was struck on its top deck, which caught fire – a less severe outcome than a hull strike, which typically causes a vessel to sink. The Houthis claim both ships were hit, though British monitors say the second tanker made a U-turn and redirected toward the Suez Canal.
At least 10 vessels attempting to cross Bab el-Mandeb strait have been forced to reroute towards the Suez Canal instead, facing a much longer journey around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. The two targeted vessels had been heading to India and China.
The Houthis describe the campaign as “a blockade for a blockade”, warning that Saudi Arabia must lift its blockade on Yemen or face further consequences. Houthi officials say they plan to escalate operations to target Saudi oil tankers and ships even when not crossing Bab el-Mandeb – meaning vessels rerouting via the Suez Canal could still be at risk.
Houthi sources also say Aramco oil facilities could become a future target if the blockade on Yemen is not lifted.
The Houthis have until this week largely remained on the sidelines of the US-Israel war on Iran, but are now clearly ratcheting their involvement, helping Tehran with keeping leverage over global oil shipping.
It was in March of 2022 that the last major strike on Saudi Aramco facilities was reported. Prior to that, 2019 saw the major Abqaiq–Khurais attack.
However, which group was ultimately behind some of those past, historic attacks remained somewhat of a mystery, also amid speculation that it could have been pro-Iranian groups out of Iraq. This as Brent Crude has on Thursday returned to the $100 per barrel mark.
Rubio, Trump Statements As Brent Tops $100
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran is “begging for a deal” and “they need to come to their senses,” adding that Tehran will “pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing.” Speaking on the sidelines of the ASEAN conference in Manila, he claimed that “Iran is begging us, both directly and indirectly, ‘Let’s do a deal. Let’s talk.'” But the reality remains that there’s no public indicators showing this; instead, the Iranians have pretty aggressively sought to enforce their red lines, this week attacking a series of international ships in the Hormuz Strait.
Rubio tried to blame an alleged fracturing of the Iranian government, and a takeover by the ‘hardline’ faction of leadership. “The problem with Iran is every time they make a deal, the people in charge either break it or they want to change it. So it looks like they’re not ready to make a deal, so they’re going to continue to pay a price, and every night the price gets higher and higher,” he asserted. Mini-nuke on Pickaxe Mountain facility or something?
US President Trump says “considering a massive attack greater than anything before, I’m close to making a decision,” N12 reports
Rubio then characterized Iran and its policies as “run by radical clerics” – calling them “oblivious” to its economic problems. In the background is the fact that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent months ago boasted that US policies and sanctions engineered a currency collapse in hopes that the January economic protests would topple the regime. This never materialized and now people in the Trump administration seem perplexed.
Rubio continued the blame-game while suggesting that if Tehran were to play ball on negotiating a deal for the Hormuz Strait, it could receive major economic benefits.
“Iran can be the richest country in the Middle East if they wanted to be. But instead, they take their money, and they use it and they give it to Hezbollah. They give it to Hamas. They give it to the Houthis. They give it to Shia militias. They give it to sponsored terrorism all over the world,” he said.
Iran “will pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing. They are already paying a heavy price,” he said. Rubio also responded to recent statements of the Iranians talking about exacting “an eye for an eye” in terms of military approach. The US top diplomat then asserted that President Trump’s approach was “a head for an eye”. He described that currently Iran’s military-industrial base is being “decimated” – suffering “billions” of dollars” in damage. This as…
The US bombs Iran for the 12th consecutive night, killing at least two people and wounding 11 others in an attack on the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq. Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait have reported retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
But what’s happening in the Red Sea right now does suggest that the Iranians have more cards to play. Their allies, the Houthis of Yemen, have initiated closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to all Saudi shipping. At least two vessels were attacked, with unconfirmed but widely circulating video showing one on fire and in distress:
The attacks on the tankers pushed Brent up near $100 – its highest since May 26th…
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has newly announced he communicated to Saudi Crown Mohammed bin Salman Pakistan’s strong condemnation of Houthi aggression against Saudi vessels.
“Such actions are unacceptable, violate international law, threaten freedom of navigation, and undermine regional peace and security,” Sharif said in a statement on X. The PM emphasized that Pakistan stands “firmly and resolutely” with the Saudi leadership.
Trump: Will Punish Iran for Houthi Attacks
President Trump is threatening to take military action against the Houthis, and on Thursday morning took it a step further in saying he will hold Iran itself accountable for Houthi actions. “The US will hold Iran responsible,” he wrote, explaining that “the Houthis area a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran.” He warned that “major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis” themselves.
As for Rubio’s remarks, there were still clear signs that the administration hasn’t totally abandon efforts to revive talks. “The president always prefers to negotiate and reach a deal… and we are prepared to do that. We’ve tried to do that now for a year and a half,” Rubio had further stated from the ASEAN conference.
But then he again reverted to the argument: “If there’s any undermining of confidence, it’s confidence that the Iranian system as it currently is structured can reach an agreement.” Rubio added, “Ships are trying to go through the Straits, and they’re getting blown up. Commercial ships are going through the Straits, and they’re being blown up.”
Joe Kent: Bombing in Search of a Strategy
As for the big picture of where things stand, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent highlights to nature of the current ‘all bad options’ of the table and quagmire the White House has gotten itself into.
“This is a bombing campaign in search of a strategy,” Kent wrote on X. We are choosing escalation when de-escalation remains an option, entrenching ourselves deeper into a broader war that we don’t have the capability or desire to sustain. There is not a military solution here that will lead to a win.”
Kent noted that “More bombing will not convince Iran to open the SOH or to give us the deal we want, it will only harden their position. Bombing civilian infrastructure will not make the people rise up against the regime, it will rally them around it.”