…he’s now lost in his own post-defeat wilderness ambling aimlessly for a way out of the greatest
military clusterfuck in U.S. history.
I think Larry’s former CIA cohorts are still sugar-coating and understating what is very clearly a US major strategic loss. And I find the explanations offered by Simplicius for Trump’s latest TACO Tuesday far more compelling and convincing:
* The US is incapable of whack-a-moling the scattered Iranian ballistic sites
* Iran has become effective at countering too predictable US flight tactics in ways that allow Iran to defend against them more capably
* Five weeks of intensive bombing created a battle-hardened, resilient adversary and instilled a belief that Iran can successfully resist the United States by effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, attacking energy infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states, and threatening American aircraft.
* Iranians view themselves as clear victors and assess Trump as bluffing with no real interest in pursuing a renewed war
* Iran has rebuilt whatever was destroyed by US’s ineffective strikes “far faster than expected” according to multiple US press assessments. Araghchi’s claim of 120% recovery was likely accurate
* The US drained its most critical systems which were always incapable of stopping Iranian attacks
* The Pentagon has confirmed speculation about the effectiveness of Iranian defenses in downing US aircraft, proving early assessments of US poor performance correct and continue to be proven true retroactively. Each time we learn that Iran played a direct role in the losses.
If that all wasn’t enough, warhawk star reporter Robert Kagan has penned yet another urgent screed against Trump’s Iran war for the Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/trump-surrender-iran-endgame/687252/
Kagan rightly notes that Iran’s terms of settlement are those of a victor—Iranian leaders know full well they have won, and they can easily see through Trump’s jaded hocus-pocus attempts to manipulate the post-war information field in the US’s favor.
Kagan knows and states the truth, that Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. The US with its trillion dollar monopoly defense budget and useless Wunderwaffen weaponry can do bupkus about it.
Amidst Trump’s latest threats to restart the conflict there are reports that Iran will not hold back, is preparing to continuously fire hundreds of missiles per day at Gulf energy infrastructure, refineries, ports, and water desalination plants as soon as the US resumes strikes, per NYT.
Iran’s IRGC says it will “return the Emirates to the era of riding camels” and “occupy Abu Dhabi” if necessary. The Houthis would also immediately shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to open up a second maritime front against the US, with initial steps toward the blockade already taken.
Trump’s options grow worse and worse by the day and Kagan’s predictions are already coming true: Iran has established the official Persian Gulf Authority with its own official X account which now dictates all terms in Hormuz, to Trump’s great chagrin. Today 30 ships passed through the Straits, after paying the necessary tolls and signing the relevant documents, safely guided through according to the guidelines and regulations of the Islamic Republic.
Game over schmuck Trump. You lost. And now it’s time for you to Go home.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/trump-cancels-last-minute-attack
Comment posted by fustyducker
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https://sonar21.com/looks-like-cia-analysts-are-doing-a-pretty-good-job-regarding-iran/