by Dr. Peter F. Mayer \ tkp
The US and Israel are working intensively to dismantle Iran and replace the elected government with a puppet junta, as was successfully carried out in 1953. The events have been completely distorted in Western corporate media and public broadcasters, explains US political science professor John J. Mearsheimer.
The attacks by paid mercenaries in the country’s interior did not achieve the desired result. They were apparently organized and financed jointly by the intelligence agencies Mossad, CIA, and MI6 , with the support of well-known and experienced NGOs. Decades of sanctions and economic warfare against Iran by the US, EU, and other Western backers were intended to make the population receptive to the renewed regime change. This resonated little with those who had experienced the Shah’s torture and terror regime between 1953 and 1979; instead, they supported the security forces.
The US Treasury Secretary has just confirmed these intentions behind the sanctions at the WEF meeting in Davos. Here, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admits that the goal of the US sanctions is to make life so unbearable for ordinary Iranians that they rise up and overthrow the government. This is something everyone knows, but rarely admits openly.
Western media actively supported the coup attempt through their distorted reporting. The Financial Times was one of the first Western media outlets to acknowledge the activities of well-organized paramilitary cells causing devastating damage in Iranian cities. The result was civilian casualties, security forces killed, and shops and mosques set ablaze.
The first attempt failed. However, there are now reports that three axes of the planned attack have been completed:
- From the East (Indian Ocean): The aircraft carrier strike group of the USS Abraham Lincoln (silently awaiting orders).
- From the center (Jordan/Gulf): F-15E and A-10 aircraft (ready to fight against defense installations and mechanized units).
- From the West (USA): Strategic B-2 bombers (supported by a wave of 8 tanker aircraft currently sighted).
However, current oil prices do not yet indicate an imminent attack.
The process and consequences are described by the US political scientist John Mearsheimer in the following post on his Substack :
The tag team fails in Iran
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982.
The mainstream media in the West are keen to portray the protests in Iran as a purely internal matter. The Iranian people, so the argument goes, spontaneously rose up against their government because they were in a desperate situation due to the corruption and mismanagement of their leaders and their repressive policies. Virtually all the protesters in this story were peaceful, but their protests were met with state violence. External forces had little to do with instigating the protests.
This interpretation of the events in Iran is false and is refuted by a wealth of evidence. This is not to deny that there were many peaceful demonstrators with legitimate grievances against the government, but that is only part of the story.
In fact, the events in Iran are an attempt by the Israeli-American team to overthrow the government in Tehran and divide Iran, much like the US, Turkey, and Israel divided Syria. The script in Iran is one we’ve seen before. It consists of four elements.
First, the US has long been working to cripple the Iranian economy through sanctions. Indeed, President Trump intensified these efforts after taking office in January of last year (2025). His goal was to exert “maximum pressure” on the Iranian economy, and that is precisely what he has done. There is no question that Iranian leaders have mismanaged their economy to some extent, but Western sanctions have caused far more damage than any government incompetence. The ultimate aim of the sanctions, of course, is to inflict so much suffering and punishment on the Iranian people that they rise up and overthrow their government.
Second, in late December 2025, the team set about instigating and supporting violent protests designed to provoke a violent government response, hopefully triggering a spiral of violence the government could not control. More specifically, there is clear evidence that Mossad agents were on the ground in Iran, and CIA agents certainly worked with them. They collaborated closely with local agitators—the rioters intent on destruction and assassination—to transform peaceful protests into violent ones that would then provoke the government into resorting to force. There is ample video footage of the agitators at work.
Furthermore, the team sent many thousands of Starlink terminals to Iran before the protests began. Should the government shut down the internet and telephone system, as expected, the Starlink terminals would allow the demonstrators to communicate with each other and with the forces supporting them from abroad.
Unsurprisingly, Trump encouraged the protesters, saying on January 13, 2026: “Iranian patriots, KEEP PROTESTING—TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON THE WAY.” Trump’s first CIA director, Mike Pompeo, said on January 2, 2026: “Happy New Year to all Iranians in the streets. Likewise to all Mossad agents marching alongside them.” And just as the protests began in late December 2025, Mossad sent a message in Farsi to Iranians, saying: “Take to the streets together. The time has come. We are with you. Not just from afar and verbally. We are with you on the ground.”
Third, the Western media played along, spreading the narrative that the protests were primarily a reaction to the policies of an evil government in Tehran and not due to foreign interference. Furthermore, they claimed the protests were peaceful and that the government had instigated the violence. Naturally, Israel and the US were portrayed as the good guys. This propaganda was intended not only to garner support for the protests in the West but also to influence events in Iran by promoting the narrative that while the regime was extremely brutal, the demonstrators were destined to overthrow the government.
Fourth, the US military (and possibly the Israeli military as well) was prepared to attack Iran once the protests reached a critical mass in order to overthrow the regime and cause chaos in Iran, which would hopefully cause the country to fall apart.
But the strategy failed, primarily because the Iranian government was able to end the protests quickly and decisively. A key element of the government’s success was the shutdown of Starlink, which made it extremely difficult for the protesters to communicate with each other and with the outside world. This doomed the protests, and both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Trump understood that the tag team could not use military force to deliver the coup de grâce. The Iranian regime had survived.
In short : The tag team’s regime change campaign failed. Israel and the US lost this round against Iran. Of course, the results will probably not be presented that way in Israeli or Western media.
These recent events are relevant to the 12-day war between Iran and the tag team, which took place from June 13 to 24, 2025. This conflict is generally portrayed in the West as a major victory for Israel and the United States. However, this is not an accurate description of the outcome of this earlier conflict. It was Israel, rather than Iran, that wanted to end the 12-day war, as Israel was depleting its stockpile of anti-aircraft missiles, while Iran was becoming increasingly adept at using its large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles to bombard Israel. In fact, some argued at the time that Iran should not have agreed to a ceasefire, as it was gaining the upper hand over Israel. This outcome does not strike me as an Israeli victory.
In this context, news reports from the West and from Israel itself indicate that Netanyahu asked Trump last week (January 14, 2026) not to bomb Iran because he feared Israel lacked sufficient forces to defend itself against an Iranian counterattack. In other words, Israel is just as vulnerable to Iranian missiles today as it was when the fighting ceased on June 24, 2025. This is further evidence that Israel has not triumphed over Iran, neither in the 12-day war nor in the recent attempt at regime change.
One final point about the 12-Day War. One could argue that while Israel came out on the losing end in its direct confrontation with Iran, the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, was a resounding success, delivering victory to both members of the tag team. After all, Trump claimed that the US military had “completely and utterly destroyed” Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) contradicted this assessment shortly after the attack, concluding that the Iranian nuclear program had not been destroyed, but merely set back by a few months. Trump and his allies rejected the DIA’s assessment, and that was the last time we heard from this intelligence agency about the impact of the US attack.
I find it strange that there is practically no meaningful information in the public records about the damage the US attack of June 22, 2025, caused to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—particularly its uranium enrichment facilities—and the 400 kilograms of uranium that Iran had enriched to 60 percent. One would think that if everything had truly been destroyed, as the president claims, the tag team would have made this fact public and at least supported their claims with some data. Furthermore, one wonders why the tag team is so eager to attack Iran again, given their overwhelming victory in the 12-day war. One also wonders what Iran is currently doing regarding the development or repair of its uranium enrichment facilities. These are particularly important questions because what the Tag Team has done to Iran – and is likely to continue doing – gives Iranian leaders a strong incentive to acquire a nuclear deterrent.
The conclusion is twofold: 1) The tag team did not succeed in overthrowing the regime in Iran, although it certainly did not abandon this goal; and 2) there are good reasons to believe that Israel and the USA did not win the 12-day war.
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https://tkp.at/2026/01/21/regimewechsel-im-iran-gescheitert-nun-angriff-bevorstehend/