Peace built on capitulation is no peace at all.
Kevork Almassian
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The ink is barely dry on the so-called “peace deal” brokered in Washington between Armenia and Azerbaijan, yet the celebration in Ankara and Baku is already in full swing, because what is being packaged as a “historic breakthrough” is, in reality, a geopolitical victory for Turkey and Azerbaijan, with the United States as the strategic midwife — and Armenia as the primary loser.
Let’s strip away the glossy rhetoric of “peace” and “prosperity” and see this deal for what it is: a 99-year American-managed corridor through Armenia’s Syunik province that gives Azerbaijan unimpeded access to its exclave of Nakhchivan and, crucially, opens Turkey’s land route to the Caspian and onward to Central Asia.
This is not an Armenian project. This is the physical manifestation of Ankara’s decades-long Pan-Turkic dream — one that bypasses Iranian chokepoints, minimizes Russia’s influence, and embeds Washington in the South Caucasus like never before.
A Corridor with One-Way Benefits
Pro-government voices in Yerevan have been quick to tout “billions in transit revenues” and a boom in foreign investment. The reality is sobering. Look at the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway in Georgia: it generates tens of millions annually, a drop in the bucket compared to what Armenia has already lost — territory, population, and strategic depth in Artsakh. The idea that transit fees will somehow offset the erosion of sovereignty is a fantasy.
Worse, Armenia isn’t even being offered reciprocal access through Azerbaijan to Russia, our largest trading partner. Instead, the corridor will serve almost exclusively east-west flows: Turkish goods, Azeri hydrocarbons, and potentially NATO military logistics. The “mutual benefit” narrative collapses when you see that Yerevan gains neither secure trade routes nor guarantees for its displaced citizens, prisoners of war, or security.
Turkey’s Strategic Jackpot
For Turkey, this is the geopolitical equivalent of the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline moment in 2005 — only bigger. Erdogan now secures a direct land bridge to the Turkic world without Iranian mediation, allowing Ankara to project economic, cultural, and potentially military influence deep into Central Asia.
This corridor also dovetails perfectly with Ankara’s ambitions inside NATO. By controlling a critical Eurasian land route, Turkey gains leverage over European energy diversification and Belt and Road transit patterns, making itself indispensable to both Brussels and Beijing.
Azerbaijan’s Triumph
For Aliyev, this is vindication of the post-2020 war strategy: use military pressure, then lock in gains through diplomacy backed by great-power mediation. The corridor consolidates Baku’s victory in Artsakh, further integrates its economy with Turkey’s, and increases its geopolitical value to Washington as a counter to Iran and Russia.
The fact that the route will be “protected” by American contractors is the icing on the cake — it means Armenian jurisdiction will be nominal, and any incident can be framed as an attack on U.S. interests, inviting direct Western intervention.
The U.S. Encirclement Play
From Washington’s perspective, this is a masterstroke in the slow-motion encirclement of Iran and the disruption of Russia’s southern flank. The corridor creates a NATO-friendly artery across the South Caucasus, undermines the North–South International Transport Corridor championed by Moscow and Tehran, and plants the American flag squarely on Iran’s doorstep.
It also places the U.S. in a position to monitor — and if necessary, restrict — Chinese Belt and Road shipments that might otherwise transit the route. In effect, the Zangezur Corridor becomes a geopolitical switch Washington can flip depending on who is in its crosshairs.
Iran’s Strategic Blind Spot
Tehran has every reason to be alarmed. This deal bypasses Iranian territory for Caspian-Central Asian trade, cuts into its already minimal share of South Caucasus commerce, and brings U.S. security infrastructure within kilometers of its border.
Yet, as some Iranian analysts have admitted, this crisis is the product of two decades of strategic negligence: appeasing Baku, underestimating Turkey’s ambitions, and failing to secure long-term influence in the Caucasus. The result is a U.S.-Turkish-Azeri corridor that could one day host not just trucks and trains, but surveillance systems and rapid-deployment forces.
Russia’s Calculated Silence
Moscow’s muted reaction is telling. Distracted by Ukraine and perhaps unwilling to alienate Ankara while it still needs Turkish mediation with the West, the Kremlin has so far avoided confrontation over the deal. But the corridor’s existence would undermine the Eurasian Economic Union’s customs integrity and challenge Russia’s control over South Caucasus transit. It is not hard to imagine that this “peace” arrangement will be revisited under more turbulent circumstances.
Armenia’s Leadership Vacuum
The tragedy in all this is that Yerevan’s own leadership has not only failed to secure meaningful concessions but appears to prioritize political survival over national interest. The absence of provisions for POW releases, refugee returns, or tangible security guarantees is glaring. Even worse, Azeri preconditions like constitutional changes — designed to erase historic claims and symbols of Armenian sovereignty — ensure that any “peace” will be temporary and imposed at gunpoint.
It is hard to escape the conclusion that the government sees compliance with Ankara and Baku’s demands as the only way to stay in power, betting that foreign backing will shield it from domestic backlash.
A Future of Instability
The U.S. may frame this as the end of the conflict, but the geopolitical logic points in the opposite direction. A corridor that benefits two adversaries far more than it does Armenia, managed by an outside power, and imposed without addressing the root causes of the conflict is not a recipe for peace. It is a time bomb.
For Turkey and Azerbaijan, the Zangezur Corridor is the realization of a long-awaited strategic vision. For Washington, it is a pressure valve on Iran and a lever over Russia and China. For Armenia, unless fundamental terms change, it risks becoming yet another chapter in a century-long story of displacement, dependency, and diminished sovereignty.
Peace built on capitulation is no peace at all.
—Kevork Almassian is a Syrian geopolitical analyst and the founder of Syriana Analysis.