Shayrat Redux? Trump’s ‘Invisible’ Fleet Leaves Mirage of ‘Devastation’ in Iran

Simplicius

Well, Trump did it again: under cover of giving Iran “two weeks” negotiating time, he instead launched a covert attack as soon as the assets were in place, later telling ‘Meet the Press’ that he said he would make the decision within two weeks, and two days technically falls in that time scale.

Trump endorsed strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at a meeting with advisers on Wednesday. His talk of a negotiating period on Thursday was a deliberate deception and “smokescreen,” The Atlantic claims.

First, let us briefly overview how the strikes reportedly went down. Chatter erupted yesterday when B-2s and refueling craft took off from their homebase of Whiteman AFB and began tracking west toward Guam (for further refueling) and Diego Garcia. However, that “visible” strike package was the diversion, while the real package flew east from mainland US under complete cover, to hit Iran directly from its western flank.

In reality, the subterfuge appeared part of an elaborate game, given that emerging details point to the entire charade being just that.

There are various reports going around that through the usual Swiss back channels Trump’s administration essentially informed Iran of the strikes, implying that as long as Iran does not respond it will be a ‘one-off’ attack. If true, this would be clear indication that the proposed back-channel agreement would require Iran to allow the US strike package to pass unharmed, and give the US its face-saving off-ramp from the conflict. This was one of the possibilities we predicted days ago in the premium article and now seems increasingly likely to be the case.

This is not Trump’s first time: recall the infamous 2017 Tomahawk attack on Syria’s Shayrat base which was billed as some kind of ‘devastating’ deathblow, when it turned out to be a show-strike nothingburger which left a few potholes on the runway and did no real damage. This is Trump’s way of alleviating neocon pressure—a sort of purity test for his Israeli handlers.

But the big question is, what really happened: was the strike entirely fake, as some suggest? Recall that there is zero evidence any B-2s even flew over Iran, with the package including dozens of fired Tomahawk missiles from an Ohio class submarine 400 miles away. Many are now spouting off about the day’s favored word of ‘subsidence’, caused by the bunker busters. But not all experts are convinced, like this ex-US artillery officer who knows a thing or two about shell craters:

Now that imagery has emerged, I think my take from last night is vindicated – the damage seen thus far is not consistent with extremely large “bunker-buster” bombs but with lighter standoff weapons that caused only surface damage. The Iranians also clearly had ample warning.

It’s possible the craters are merely from the submarine-launched Tomahawks, though they do look large enough to be from a much more powerful weapon.

My personal take, though, is that most likely a back-channel agreement was made for the B-2s to have safe passage to do a limited ‘show strike’.

The evidence?

Firstly, the fact that it was a small strike, which even experts agree utilized far fewer MOPs (Mass Ordnance Penetrators) than required. The problem is, since half the operative B-2 fleet was used as ‘diversion’, the remaining half (7 x B-2s) could only carry 14 x total penetrators, and these had to be divided between several facilities including Natanz, on top of Fordow. That means Fordow only received six hits, far fewer than needed. For it to receive more, the B-2s would have had to do numerous runs, or extend the campaign—which could have gotten messily off-script. By signaling a ‘token’ strike, Trump likely mollified Iran into not responding.

The second piece of evidence is that—besides the various intel and rumors of back channel deals—new satellite imagery revealed that Iran had dozens of dump trucks carrying out “unusual activity” at Fordow two days before the attack:

Iran Reinforced Fordow Nuclear Site Just Before U.S. Strikes!

Satellite images (June 19) show 16 dump trucks & earthmovers piling dirt near tunnel entrances of Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, buried 90m underground. Signs of pre-emptive fortification before strikes.

Satellite imagery shows “unusual truck and vehicular activity” at the Fordow fuel enrichment facility two days before the strike, according to a senior analyst at the satellite firm Maxar. On June 19, there were 16 cargo trucks along the access road leading to the underground military complex. Imagery taken the next day shows that most of the trucks had moved about one kilometer northwest, farther from the facility.

Initial assumptions were that these were flatbeds hauling away the critical ‘enrichment materials’, but in fact that total relocation of the Fordow site had already taken place months ago, as Iranian figures like Mohsen Rezaee revealed. The above shows not flatbeds but dump trucks which appear to be filling Fordow’s tunnel entrances in order to fortify them against blast damage.

Another image makes it more clear, as individual trucks are seen dumping something at the entrances:

New high-resolution imagery, captured on June 21, 2025, suggests Iran was preparing the Fordow nuclear facility for a strike. The facility’s entrance tunnels were observed being filled with earth by trucks and diggers.

That means Iran appears to have gotten advance warning of the hit, which is interesting given the earlier Atlantic report that Trump had already ‘made up his mind’ precisely by Wednesday of this past week:

Trump endorsed strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at a meeting with advisers on Wednesday. His talk of a negotiating period on Thursday was a deliberate deception and “smokescreen,” The Atlantic claims.

The timeline seems to be that Trump made up his mind Wednesday during the big meeting with his advisors, then back channel deals trickled through by Thursday, at which point Iran rushed gear to begin backfilling the tunnels—give or take a day. Given that the attacks happened early Sunday morning Iranian time, it would have given Iran up to three days to do some last minute work.

Continue reading at: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/shayrat-redux-trumps-invisible-fleet