{"id":84456,"date":"2026-10-20T08:56:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T12:56:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/?p=84456"},"modified":"2026-10-20T09:00:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T13:00:13","slug":"84456","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/?p=84456","title":{"rendered":"

GOOD GUY SYNDROME: Did Putin admit he underestimated Western treachery or was this the script all along?<\/i><\/b><\/h2>"},"content":{"rendered":"

SLOPAGANDA IN WAR IS WHEN YOU
\nCAN\u2019T TELL THE DIFFERENCE
\nBETWEEN HOPE AND HYPE AND YOU
\nARE BLIND TO NOPE<\/h1>\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

By John Helmer, Moscow
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is the story of how recent calculations by President Donald Trump, Vladimir Zelensky, and President Vladimir Putin have come up short more quickly than they were expecting.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a short story \u2014 Trump\u2019s is the shortest of the three.<\/p>\n

Trump and Zelensky have believed that the war which they, their allies, their media, and their voters \u2013 their predecessors too, going back a hundred years \u2013 have been waging against Russia was succeeding slowly, \u00a0at a price they could afford to pay over time, \u00a0but Putin could not. In time, they calculated, their war would break Putin in the Kremlin and push Russia into a chaos from which they would profit at the Russians\u2019 expense.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the strategy of overthrow from within, driven by pressure from without, which succeeded in just five years with Mikhail Gorbachev, and then in ten years with Boris Yeltsin. It\u2019s also the same Anglo-American and German strategy which failed the first time with Vladimir Lenin, and failed the second time with Joseph Stalin.<\/p>\n

On the evidence of the most recent Russian public opinion polling \u2013 measured<\/a> by the Levada Centre of Moscow one week after Russian voters had gone to the national parliamentary election \u2013 this calculation isn\u2019t entirely mistaken. \u201cIn September\u2026 the level of support for the actions of the Russian military remains high; seven out of ten respondents support the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine. At the same time, two-thirds of respondents are in favour of the transition to peace negotiations; only one-quarter for the continuation of hostilities. Most of the respondents would support Vladimir Putin\u2019s decision if he decided \u2018right now this week\u2019 to end the military conflict with Ukraine. However, if the end of the conflict would require the return of the annexed territories, only one-third of the respondents would support such a decision.\u201d<\/p>\n

When the Levada pollsters divided their voter sample into those who would support Putin ending the war unconditionally \u2014 accepting a ceasefire in place and returning the annexed territories \u2014 \u00a0and those who baulked at these conditions and opposed such a settlement, the result was a split between men and women, the higher and lesser educated, the big-city and provincial residents, and those who depend on the alternative media for their news instead of the mainstream media.<\/p>\n

It is clear that the allied and Ukrainian targeting of the drone and missile attacks in the Russian hinterland has aimed at those young, urban, middle-class Russians already least supportive of continuing the war. This has been a political gaming strategy which Trump and his officials have shared with NATO and with the Kiev regime.<\/p>\n

\u201cMr. Zelensky has to do one thing,\u201d Trump tried<\/a> explaining this strategy at an Irish golf course on September 13. \u201cHe has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel \u2019cause he\u2019s causing a shortage of diesel fuel. This isn\u2019t done by the Middle East, this is done by what\u2019s happening with Russia and Ukraine. So, uh, we spoke to Mr. Zelensky about it. There are plenty of other targets. Don\u2019t hit diesel fuel because that\u2019s hurting, that\u2019s hurting the world. We don\u2019t want him to hit diesel fuel. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he\u2019s causing a shortage of diesel fuel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s calculation was that he could appeal in this fashion to US voters to neutralize the blame they were putting on him for fuel price inflation, and thereby to reverse the decline in Republican Party votes ahead of the November 3 Congressional election. He was asking Zelensky to help; he was calling him mister.<\/p>\n

This invited Putin\u2019s calculation that he could drive a wedge between the two of them by offering Trump the diesel he wanted to turn into votes. \u00a0In the five weeks since September 13, this is how the cards were played. Except that the diesel traders and US voters have not been persuaded: the New York Harbor marker price for diesel price went down from its mid-September peak; rose again; \u00a0fell again; \u00a0and is now higher than it was in response to Putin\u2019s offer to start shipping Russian diesel in exchange for Trump suspending sanctions on the shipments and the tanker trade<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Not a drop of the Russian diesel has landed at a US port. \u00a0Zelensky has continued to strike \u00a0refineries and terminals in Rostov, Ryazan, and St Petersburg as his targets. Trump has dropped the mister.<\/p>\n

\u201cZelensky,\u201d he tweeted<\/a> on October 18, \u201cis using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States. Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this, but Russia is, nevertheless, sending, at a low price, millions of barrels of diesel to the World. Zelensky doesn\u2019t care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn\u2019t want to end this war, and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles, a large portion of his land is lost, his oceans and seas are gone, and his male population is low, wounded, and\/or dead.\u201d<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s calculation is that with Trump he can achieve an end to the war on the Ukrainian battlefield for the time being; gain the time the General Staff is requesting to prepare for the wars the US alliance is directing on other fronts; to deliver terms which Russian voters will accept; and secure a stable succession for himself and the oligarchs on whom Putin has depended from the very beginning. Trump\u2019s corruption was his opportunity, and he calculated there isn\u2019t much time left to play it.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn this situation, bribing Trump is the only card Putin has,\u201d says a Moscow source in a position to know, \u201c\u2014 and at the moment you can see for yourself, it is producing results.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no diesel deal with Trump worth anything. That is not the point. This non-deal is not the point at all. It is all about making Trump perform in a manner that can bring some benefit in money and some benefit in discord in NATO to the Russian side. That\u2019s all it is, and it is working. \u00a0There is no question bribes have already been paid. Whether for Trump family weddings, gifts, crypto business \u2013 you name it, it\u2019s been paid. The Russian oligarchs and the Kremlin gladly play these games to free up their own money and take some advantage in the battlefield.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump will not hand the war and terms to the Russians but his actions will help. You can see the Europeans are coming around to the position that they cannot give any more money and they can\u2019t act alone without the US. So the statements from Trump help in dissuading the weaker \u00a0Europeans, and add to the pressure on the stronger ones. All this is helping. A corrupt Trump helps the Russians.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIn this situation, continuing to dangle bribes and bribing his children, achieves the purpose.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question for us is how much compromise Putin will make; I believe he will make a few, \u00a0knowing fully well that the active phase of war does not give all the gains that were hoped for; and that passive long-term war with Europe needs preparation and freeing up the economy from sanctions. Plus, he is now admitting publicly that he did not foresee the attacks on data centres; \u00a0refineries; \u00a0and other civilian targets. This means there was nothing like the \u00a0tacit understanding which Putin believed there was \u2013 just his expectation that the Americans, Brits, Germans and French wouldn\u2019t go so far, would be deterred by the threats he and [Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov have been making. His expectations for Trump and the Americans have come out obviously wrong. After letting the Libyans, Syrians, Iranians, Cubans, Venezuelans down, Putin is sticking to expectations his enemies believe have proved wrong. That\u2019s why they continue to be confident that if they keep up the war pressure for two more years, they will succeed against Putin as they had against Gorbachev and Yeltsin. They are confident Putin has no Stalin cards to play.\u201d<\/p>\n

By this past weekend, when Trump issued his justification for his Russian diesel deal for votes, Putin had announced to a bunker of front commanders his justification for the concessions he had apparently agreed with Trump.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

October 16: \u00a0http:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/81009<\/u><\/a>\u00a0<\/code><\/p>\n

\u201cJust over 10 percent of the territory of the Donetsk People\u2019s Republic and 16.5 percent of the Zaporozhye Region remain under the control of the Kiev regime. The Lugansk People\u2019s Republic is entirely under our control. I would also like to recall that, following the incursion by the Armed Forces of Ukraine into Russia\u2019s Kursk Region, the Russian Armed Forces were set the task of not only driving the enemy out of our territory but also establishing a security zone in the adjacent territory of Ukraine. This task is being carried out successfully. Our goal is to ensure the absolute security of Russia\u2019s border regions for the future, and we do not intend to make this a subject of potential peace negotiations with Ukraine<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI would like to note that, in response to strikes by the Kiev authorities against our industrial facilities and fuel and energy infrastructure, the Russian Armed Forces continue to deliver strikes on enterprises of Ukraine\u2019s military-industrial complex and infrastructure facilities\u2026The commanders of the groups of forces must continue to carry out the tasks in strict accordance with the plan of the Special Military Operation. And, of course, we must continue to deliver massive and multiple strikes against the enemy\u2019s military\u2011industrial complex and logistics centres<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump had addressed his tweet to US voters. Zelensky\u2019s reply had expressed the confidence that Trump\u2019s vote pitch is in vain, and that after the votes are counted on November 3, Trump will have lost control of both the US Senate and the House of Representatives to Democratic Party majorities who will continue the war on the old terms and escalate the US and NATO pressure until Putin is broken.<\/p>\n

The \u00a0Levada poll of Russian voters was taken between September 23 and 30, and published on October 6<\/a>. It confirms the steady increase in voter support for Putin to negotiate an end to the current fighting; and a parallel decline in confidence that military escalation can achieve the objectives of the Special Military Operation.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Source: https:\/\/www.levada.ru\/2026\/10\/06\/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-v-sentyabre-2026-goda-vnimanie-podderzhka-otnoshenie-k-peregovoram-usloviyam-zaversheniya-konflikta\/print\/<\/u><\/a>\u00a0<\/code><\/p>\n

The polling of Russian voter approval and disapproval of the conditions for a war settlement is unique. It is well understood by the US, British and NATO intelligence agencies and political leaders. It is equally well understood in the Russian Security Council; it is being ignored by the Russian state media and their echoes in the pro-Russian podcasts.<\/p>\n

According to the Levada report, \u201cwith the help of a random number generator, the survey participants were divided into two equal groups, each of which was asked to respond to one of \u00a0two questions. In the first case, respondents were asked whether they would have supported or not supported the President\u2019s decision to immediately end the military conflict without conditions. In the second case, the respondents were also asked whether they would have supported or supported the decision, but if the new territories were returned.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Source: https:\/\/www.levada.ru\/2026\/10\/06\/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-v-sentyabre-2026-goda-vnimanie-podderzhka-otnoshenie-k-peregovoram-usloviyam-zaversheniya-konflikta\/print\/<\/u><\/a><\/code><\/p>\n

\u201cMost, 81%, of the respondents would support Putin\u2019s decision, if \u2018this week\u2019 he decided to stop the military conflict with Ukraine. The share of these supporters of the cessation of hostilities with the approval of the president has been slowly growing since May 2023 \u2013 by 19 percentage points. The share of opponents of this decision has been decreasing \u2014 by 21 percentage points over the same time period; it now amounts to 12%. At the same time, if Putin decided to stop the conflict \u2018this week\u2019, but with the condition of returning the annexed territories, his decision would draw the support of a noticeably smaller number of Russians \u2013 35%. However, this has been growing over the past year and a half by 7 percentage points. The 51% who would not support the president\u2019s decision to end the military conflict and return the new territories has been dwindling by 13 percentage points since February 2025; it has now reached the lowest level recorded over the three-year period of the polling<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Splitting Russian voters like this by drone and missile targeting, and driving Putin against the Stavka \u2013 the coalition of military and civilian decision-makers \u2013 will be the US and NATO war aim after Trump\u2019s calculations have run out of the political power to sustain them.<\/p>\n

To report these calculations now as \u201ca masterful Trump achievement<\/a>\u201d \u00a0in splitting the US from the European allies, and cutting the Kiev regime off from its war financing, weapons and intelligence is slopaganda: that\u2019s the projection of wishful thinking, discredited by the evidence of the past, but repeated into the future when there are rewards for unreasonable hope.<\/p>\n

____
\nhttps:\/\/johnhelmer.net\/slopaganda-in-war-is-when-you-cant-tell-the-difference-between-hope-and-hype-and-you-are-blind-to-nope\/<\/a><\/p>\n

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SLOPAGANDA IN WAR IS WHEN YOU CAN\u2019T TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HOPE AND HYPE AND YOU ARE BLIND TO NOPE   By John Helmer, Moscow<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84456"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84456\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84461,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84456\/revisions\/84461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}