The Turkish-backed terrorists\u2019\/\u201crebels\u2019\u201d advance on Aleppo, which was analyzed\u00a0here<\/a>, came as a shock to most observers.<\/p>\n There was almost half a decade of peace between the\u00a0March 2020 ceasefire<\/a>\u00a0and now, yet practically nothing was done to prepare for this possibility.<\/strong><\/p>\n This was in spite of the front line remaining roughly two dozen kilometers away from Aleppo, which should have reminded Assad of how vulnerable his country\u2019s second city is.<\/p>\n Here are the five reasons why Syria was caught by surprise:<\/p>\n 1. Complacency & Corruption<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) rested on its laurels because it took the Russian-brokered ceasefire for granted, after which the country\u2019s infamous corruption kicked in to degrade its capabilities. There\u2019s no excuse for why even basic drones weren\u2019t used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect the buildup that preceded this advance. A large part of why the SAA didn\u2019t do anything is likely because it assumed that its Russian and Iranian allies would shoulder these responsibilities for them.<\/em><\/p>\n 2. The Russian-Iranian Rivalry<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Russia and Iran fought together against terrorism in Syria, but they\u2019re also rivals who are competing with each other for\u00a0premier influence over Damascus<\/a>. So intense is their competition that Russia\u00a0always does nothing<\/a>\u00a0other than occasionally complain whenever Israel bombs the IRGC there,\u00a0never once<\/a>\u00a0giving Syria the means to intercept these attacks or retaliate afterwards. Had they not been rivals, then Russia and Iran could have jointly strengthened the SAA, carried out ISR in Idlib, and bolstered Aleppo\u2019s defenses.<\/em><\/p>\n 3. Distracted & Crippled Allies<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n To make matters even worse for Syria, the terrorists\u2019\/\u201crebels\u2019\u201d advance on Aleppo came precisely at the moment when Russia is distracted with the special military operation (SMO) and Iran has been crippled by its West Asian Wars with Israel. Without sufficient Russian airpower and Iranian manpower, including that which the latter could have called upon from Hezbollah, it\u2019ll be extremely difficult for the SAA to push the attackers away from Aleppo. This factor, more than any other, might have even sealed its fate.<\/em><\/p>\n 4. Ignoring The SMO\u2019s Lessons<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Even amidst the Russian-Iranian rivalry and its allies\u2019 aforesaid problems, the SAA could have learned the SMO\u2019s lessons on its own and correspondingly prepared much better for what ultimately came to pass. Masterful drone tactics and strategically dispersed units have characterized the attack thus far, both of which are hallmarks of the SMO, yet the SAA was totally unprepared for this. It must therefore take final responsibility for failing to do its duty in learning from that conflict and adapting its defenses accordingly.<\/em><\/p>\n 5. Not Compromising For Peace<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The last reason why Syria was caught by surprise is because it didn\u2019t compromise for peace by accepting 2017\u2019s\u00a0Russian-written \u201cdraft constitution\u201d<\/a>, which was constructively critiqued in detail\u00a0here<\/a>. It\u2019s chock-full of concessions so one can sympathize with Syria for rejecting it, but in hindsight, this could have finally resolved the conflict and thus averted the ongoing fiasco in Aleppo. For this reason, it could be revived during these desperate times, but the \u201copposition\u201d might now demand even more concessions.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The disaster in Aleppo was avoidable and is just as bad as it looks.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not part of a \u201c5D chess master plan\u201d to \u201ctrap the terrorists in a cauldron\u201d like\u00a0some members<\/a>\u00a0of the\u00a0Alt-Media Community<\/a>\u00a0have implied or claimed.<\/strong><\/p>\n Observers should reject the \u201cinsight\u201d shared by those who already discredited themselves with their fantastical takes on the SMO and the West Asian Wars.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz%20%2895%29_0.jpg?itok=1AdHkHHI\")
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