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<\/p>\nAndrew Korybko<\/p>\n
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The goal is to obtain proxy control over Iran\u2019s enormous oil and gas reserves so that they can be weaponized as leverage against China for coercing it into a lopsided trade deal that would derail its superpower rise and therefore restore US-led unipolarity.<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0that the US\u2019\u00a0military campaign<\/a>\u00a0against Iran is to \u201cdefend the American people\u201d, while many critics have alleged (whether in jest or not) that it\u2019s to distract from the Epstein Files, but few observers realize that it\u2019s actually all about China. It was explained\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0that Trump 2.0 \u201cdecided to gradually deprive China of access to markets and resources, ideally through a series of trade deals, in order to imbue the US with the indirect leverage required to peacefully derail China\u2019s superpower rise.\u201d<\/p>\n To elaborate, \u201cThe US\u2019 trade deals with the EU and India could ultimately result in them curtailing China\u2019s access to their markets under pain of punitive tariffs if they refuse. In parallel, the US\u2019 special operation in Venezuela, pressure on Iran, and simultaneous attempts to subordinate Nigeria and other leading energy producers could curtail China\u2019s access to the resources required for fueling its superpower rise.\u201d The resource dimension that\u2019s relevant to Iran is a major part of the US\u2019 \u201cStrategy of Denial\u201d.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the brainchild of Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, and it was expanded on in this analysis\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0from early January. As was written, \u201cUS influence over Venezuela\u2019s and possibly soon Iran\u2019s and Nigeria\u2019s energy exports and trade ties with China could be weaponized via threats of curtailment or cut-offs in parallel with pressure upon its Gulf allies to do the same in pursuit of this goal\u201d, which is to coerce China into indefinite junior partnership status vis-\u00e0-vis the US through a lopsided trade deal.<\/p>\n Most observers missed it, but the new\u00a0National Security Strategy<\/a>\u00a0calls for ultimately \u201crebalance[ing] China\u2019s economy toward household consumption\u201d. This is a euphemism for radically re-engineering the global economy through the previously described means, namely curtailing China\u2019s access to the markets and resources responsible for its superpower rise, so that it no longer remains \u201cthe world\u2019s factory\u201d and thus ends its era of being the US\u2019 only systemic rival.\u00a0US-led unipolarity<\/a>\u00a0would then be restored.<\/p>\n Circling back to Iran, \u201c[it] represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 MMbpd of oil [that China] imported by sea\u201d last year\u00a0per Kpler<\/a>, hence why the US wants to control, curtail, or outright cut off this flow. \u2018Plan A\u2019 was to achieve this through diplomatic means for\u00a0replicating the Venezuelan model<\/a>\u00a0that entered into effect after Maduro\u2019s capture. Iran\u00a0flirted<\/a>\u00a0with this but didn\u2019t commit since it would entail the country\u2019s strategic surrender, ergo why Trump authorized military action for achieving this instead.<\/p>\n In pursuit of this, Trump promised the IRGC in his\u00a0video<\/a>\u00a0announcing his country\u2019s military campaign against Iran that\u00a0they\u2019d have immunity<\/a>\u00a0if they laid down their arms. This reinforces the abovementioned claim that the US wants to replicate the Venezuelan model since it strongly suggests that he envisages newly US-aligned IRGC running Iran in the political interim before new elections just like the newly US-aligned Venezuelan security services run their own country during their own current political interim.<\/p>\n Such a scenario would avert\u00a0Iran\u2019s possible \u201cBalkanization\u201d<\/a>, thus preserving the state so that it can then resume its prior role as one of the US\u2019 top regional allies, which might then aid the\u00a0Azeri-Turkish Axis\u2019 efforts<\/a>\u00a0to project Western influence\u00a0along Russia\u2019s entire southern periphery<\/a>. In that event, the US would simultaneously obtain unparalleled resource leverage over China via proxy control of Iran\u2019s oil and gas industries while\u00a0tightening its encirclement of Russia<\/a>, which would deal a powerful blow to multipolarity.<\/p>\n