{"id":48359,"date":"2026-01-21T09:44:40","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T14:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/?p=48359"},"modified":"2026-01-21T09:44:40","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T14:44:40","slug":"regime-change-in-iran-has-failed-is-an-attack-imminent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/?p=48359","title":{"rendered":"<h2><b>Regime change in Iran has failed \u2013 <i>Is an attack imminent?<\/i><\/b><\/h2>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more-->by Dr. Peter F. Mayer \\ tkp<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" data-fontsize=\"19\" data-lineheight=\"29.45px\"><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">The US and Israel are working intensively to dismantle Iran and replace the elected government with a puppet junta, as was successfully carried out in 1953.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">The events have been completely distorted in Western corporate media and public broadcasters, explains US political science professor John J. Mearsheimer.<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">The\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">attacks by paid mercenaries in the country&#8217;s interior did not achieve the desired result. They were apparently organized and financed jointly by the intelligence agencies Mossad, CIA, and MI6\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">,\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">with the support of well-known and experienced NGOs. Decades of sanctions and economic warfare against Iran by the US, EU, and other Western backers were intended to make the population receptive to the renewed regime change. This resonated little with those who had experienced the Shah&#8217;s torture and terror regime between 1953 and 1979; instead, they supported the security forces.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">The US Treasury Secretary has just confirmed these intentions behind the sanctions at the WEF meeting in Davos. Here, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admits that the goal of the US sanctions is to make life so unbearable for ordinary Iranians that they rise up and overthrow the government. This is something everyone knows, but rarely admits openly.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=false&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=2013772097651106299&amp;lang=de&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Ftkp.at%2F2026%2F01%2F21%2Fregimewechsel-im-iran-gescheitert-nun-angriff-bevorstehend%2F&amp;sessionId=4246b03e3372b8fa9158543b6e12b65d6f345f02&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"2013772097651106299\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">Western media actively supported the coup attempt through their distorted reporting. The\u00a0<\/span><\/span><em><a href=\"https:\/\/tkp.at\/2026\/01\/17\/financial-times-ueber-organisierte-gewalt-im-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">Financial Times<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/em><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0was one\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">of\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">the first Western media outlets to acknowledge the activities of well-organized paramilitary cells causing devastating damage in Iranian cities. The result was civilian casualties, security forces killed, and shops and mosques set ablaze.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-2\">\n<div class=\"aawp\">\n<div class=\"aawp-product aawp-product--horizontal aawp-product--ribbon\" data-aawp-product-asin=\"3608948457\" data-aawp-product-id=\"389\" data-aawp-tracking-id=\"tkpat-21\" data-aawp-product-title=\"Verbrecher Opfer Heilige  Eine Geschichte des T\u00f6tens 1200-1700\"><span class=\"aawp-product__ribbon aawp-product__ribbon--bestseller\"><span dir=\"auto\">Advertising<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"aawp-product__thumb\"><a class=\"aawp-product__image-link\" title=\"Criminals, Victims, Saints: A History of Killing 1200-1700\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.de\/dp\/3608948457?tag=tkpat-21&amp;linkCode=ogi&amp;th=1&amp;psc=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aawp-product__image\" src=\"https:\/\/tkp.at\/wp-content\/plugins\/aawp\/public\/image.php?url=YUhSMGNITTZMeTl0TG0xbFpHbGhMV0Z0WVhwdmJpNWpiMjB2YVcxaFoyVnpMMGt2TlRGWlRIVmtiMU5rUlV3dVgxTk1NVFl3WHk1cWNHYz18MTc2OTE3OTExMg=\" alt=\"Criminals, Victims, Saints: A History of Killing 1200-1700\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"aawp-product__content\"><a class=\"aawp-product__title\" title=\"Criminals, Victims, Saints: A History of Killing 1200-1700\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.de\/dp\/3608948457?tag=tkpat-21&amp;linkCode=ogi&amp;th=1&amp;psc=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\"><span dir=\"auto\">Criminals, Victims, Saints: A History of Killing 1200-1700<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"aawp-product__description\">\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Schuster, Peter (Author)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"aawp-product__footer\">\n<div class=\"aawp-product__pricing\"><span class=\"aawp-product__price aawp-product__price--current\"><span dir=\"auto\">27.95 EUR<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p><a class=\"aawp-button aawp-button--buy aawp-button--icon aawp-button--icon-black\" title=\"Buy on Amazon\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.de\/dp\/3608948457?tag=tkpat-21&amp;linkCode=ogi&amp;th=1&amp;psc=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\"><span dir=\"auto\">Buy on Amazon<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">The first attempt failed. However, there are now reports that three axes of the planned attack have been completed:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">From the East (Indian Ocean): The aircraft carrier strike group of the USS Abraham Lincoln (silently awaiting orders).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">From the center (Jordan\/Gulf): F-15E and A-10 aircraft (ready to fight against defense installations and mechanized units).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">From the West (USA): Strategic B-2 bombers (supported by a wave of 8 tanker aircraft currently sighted).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">However, current oil prices do not yet indicate an imminent attack.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">The process and consequences are described by the US political scientist John Mearsheimer in the following\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@mearsheimer\/p-185093041\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">post on his Substack<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"western fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" data-fontsize=\"28\" data-lineheight=\"33.6px\"><span lang=\"de-AT\"><span dir=\"auto\">The tag team fails in Iran<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"western\"><a class=\"western\" href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@mearsheimer\"><span dir=\"auto\">John\u00a0<\/span><\/a><a class=\"western\" href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@mearsheimer\"><span dir=\"auto\">J. Mearsheimer<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">The mainstream media in the West are keen to portray the protests in Iran as a purely internal matter. The Iranian people, so the argument goes, spontaneously rose up against their government because they were in a desperate situation due to the corruption and mismanagement of their leaders and their repressive policies. Virtually all the protesters in this story were peaceful, but their protests were met with state violence. External forces had little to do with instigating the protests.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">This interpretation of the events in Iran is false and is refuted by a wealth of evidence. This is not to deny that there were many peaceful demonstrators with legitimate grievances against the government, but that is only part of the story.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">In fact, the events in Iran are an attempt by the Israeli-American team to overthrow the government in Tehran and divide Iran, much like the US, Turkey, and Israel divided Syria. The script in Iran is one we&#8217;ve seen before. It consists of four elements.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><b><span dir=\"auto\">First,<\/span><\/b><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0the US has long been working to cripple the Iranian economy through sanctions. Indeed, President Trump intensified these efforts after taking office in January of last year (2025). His goal was to exert \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d on the Iranian economy, and that is precisely what he has done. There is no question that Iranian leaders have mismanaged their economy to some extent, but Western sanctions have caused far more damage than any government incompetence. The ultimate aim of the sanctions, of course, is to inflict so much suffering and punishment on the Iranian people that they rise up and overthrow their government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><b><span dir=\"auto\">Second,<\/span><\/b><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0in late December 2025, the team set about instigating and supporting violent protests designed to provoke a violent government response, hopefully triggering a spiral of violence the government could not control. More specifically, there is clear evidence that Mossad agents were on the ground in Iran, and CIA agents certainly worked with them. They collaborated closely with local agitators\u2014the rioters intent on destruction and assassination\u2014to transform peaceful protests into violent ones that would then provoke the government into resorting to force. There is ample video footage of the agitators at work.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">Furthermore, the team sent many thousands of Starlink terminals to Iran before the protests began. Should the government shut down the internet and telephone system, as expected, the Starlink terminals would allow the demonstrators to communicate with each other and with the forces supporting them from abroad.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">Unsurprisingly, Trump encouraged the protesters, saying on January 13, 2026: \u201cIranian patriots, KEEP PROTESTING\u2014TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!\u2026 HELP IS ON THE WAY.\u201d Trump\u2019s first CIA director, Mike Pompeo, said on January 2, 2026: \u201cHappy New Year to all Iranians in the streets. Likewise to all Mossad agents marching alongside them.\u201d And just as the protests began in late December 2025, Mossad sent a message in Farsi to Iranians, saying: \u201cTake to the streets together. The time has come. We are with you. Not just from afar and verbally. We are with you on the ground.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><b><span dir=\"auto\">Third,<\/span><\/b><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0the Western media played along, spreading the narrative that the protests were primarily a reaction to the policies of an evil government in Tehran and not due to foreign interference. Furthermore, they claimed the protests were peaceful and that the government had instigated the violence. Naturally, Israel and the US were portrayed as the good guys. This propaganda was intended not only to garner support for the protests in the West but also to influence events in Iran by promoting the narrative that while the regime was extremely brutal, the demonstrators were destined to overthrow the government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><b><span dir=\"auto\">Fourth,<\/span><\/b><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0the US military (and possibly the Israeli military as well) was prepared to attack Iran once the protests reached a critical mass in order to overthrow the regime and cause chaos in Iran, which would hopefully cause the country to fall apart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">But the strategy failed, primarily because the Iranian government was able to end the protests quickly and decisively. A key element of the government&#8217;s success was the shutdown of Starlink, which made it extremely difficult for the protesters to communicate with each other and with the outside world. This doomed the protests, and both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Trump understood that the tag team could not use military force to deliver the coup de gr\u00e2ce. The Iranian regime had survived.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><b><span dir=\"auto\">In short<\/span><\/b><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: The tag team&#8217;s regime change campaign failed. Israel and the US lost this round against Iran. Of course, the results will probably not be presented that way in Israeli or Western media.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">These recent events are relevant to the 12-day war between Iran and the tag team, which took place from June 13 to 24, 2025. This conflict is generally portrayed in the West as a major victory for Israel and the United States. However, this is not an accurate description of the outcome of this earlier conflict. It was Israel, rather than Iran, that wanted to end the 12-day war, as Israel was depleting its stockpile of anti-aircraft missiles, while Iran was becoming increasingly adept at using its large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles to bombard Israel. In fact, some argued at the time that Iran should not have agreed to a ceasefire, as it was gaining the upper hand over Israel. This outcome does not strike me as an Israeli victory.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">In this context, news reports from the West and from Israel itself indicate that Netanyahu asked Trump last week (January 14, 2026) not to bomb Iran because he feared Israel lacked sufficient forces to defend itself against an Iranian counterattack. In other words, Israel is just as vulnerable to Iranian missiles today as it was when the fighting ceased on June 24, 2025. This is further evidence that Israel has not triumphed over Iran, neither in the 12-day war nor in the recent attempt at regime change.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">One final point about the 12-Day War. One could argue that while Israel came out on the losing end in its direct confrontation with Iran, the US attack on Iran&#8217;s nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, was a resounding success, delivering victory to both members of the tag team. After all, Trump claimed that the US military had &#8220;completely and utterly destroyed&#8221; Iran&#8217;s nuclear facilities. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) contradicted this assessment shortly after the attack, concluding that the Iranian nuclear program had not been destroyed, but merely set back by a few months. Trump and his allies rejected the DIA&#8217;s assessment, and that was the last time we heard from this intelligence agency about the impact of the US attack.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">I find it strange that there is practically no meaningful information in the public records about the damage the US attack of June 22, 2025, caused to Iran&#8217;s nuclear infrastructure\u2014particularly its uranium enrichment facilities\u2014and the 400 kilograms of uranium that Iran had enriched to 60 percent. One would think that if everything had truly been destroyed, as the president claims, the tag team would have made this fact public and at least supported their claims with some data. Furthermore, one wonders why the tag team is so eager to attack Iran again, given their overwhelming victory in the 12-day war. One also wonders what Iran is currently doing regarding the development or repair of its uranium enrichment facilities. These are particularly important questions because what the Tag Team has done to Iran \u2013 and is likely to continue doing \u2013 gives Iranian leaders a strong incentive to acquire a nuclear deterrent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"western\"><span dir=\"auto\">The\u00a0<\/span><b><span dir=\"auto\">conclusion<\/span><\/b><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0is twofold: 1) The tag team did not succeed in overthrowing the regime in Iran, although it certainly did not abandon this goal; and 2) there are good reasons to believe that Israel and the USA did not win the 12-day war.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>____<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/tkp.at\/2026\/01\/21\/regimewechsel-im-iran-gescheitert-nun-angriff-bevorstehend\/\">https:\/\/tkp.at\/2026\/01\/21\/regimewechsel-im-iran-gescheitert-nun-angriff-bevorstehend\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48359\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.info\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}